Internationally peer reviewed papers (listed by Scopus and ISI).


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  1. Alagador, D., Triviño, M., Cerdeira, J.O., Brás, R., Cabeza, M. & Araújo, M.B. 2012. Linking like with like: optimising connectivity between environmentally-similar habitats. Landscape Ecology. 27: 291-301.
  2. Albouy, C., Guilhaumon, F., Araújo, M.B., Mouillot, D., Leprieur, F. 2012. Combining projected changes in species richness and composition reveals climate change impacts on coastal Mediterranean fish asemblages. Global Change Biology. 18: 2995–3003
  3. Araújo, M.B. 2012. Spanish cuts: Reform bureaucratic culture. Nature. 487: 38-39.
  4. Araújo, M.B. & Peterson, A.T. 2012. Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modelling. Ecology. 93:1527-1539.
  5. Baselga, A., Lobo, J.M., Svenning, J-C. & Araújo, M.B. 2012. Global patterns in the shape of species geographical ranges reveal range determinants. Journal of Biogeography. 39: 760-771.
  6. Baselga, A., Lobo, J.M., Svenning, J-C., Aragón, P. & Araújo, M.B. 2012. Dispersal ability modulates the strength of the latitudinal richness gradient in European beetles. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 11: 1106–1113.
  7. Brás, E., Cerdeira, J.O., Alagador, D. & Araújo, M.B. Linking habitats for multiple species. Environmental Modelling and Software.
  8. Civantos, E., Thuiller, W., Luigi, M., Guisan, A. & Araújo, M.B. Potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in Europe: the case of Pest Control. Bioscience. 62: 658-666.
  9. Fordham, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Araújo, M.B., Elith, J., Keith, D., Pearson, R.G., Auld, T., Mellin, C., Morgan, J., Regan, T., Regan H., Tozer, M., Watts, M.J., White, M., Wintle, B., Yates, C., & Brook, B.W. 2012. Plant demographic traits and landscape structure strongly affect estimates of extinction risk and range margin movement under climate change. Global Change Biology. 18: 1357-1371.
  10. Garcia, R.A., Burgess, N.D., Cabeza, M., Rahbek, C. & Araújo, M.B. 2012. Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates. Global Change Biology. 18: 1253-1269. (Adendum).
  11. Harris, J.B., Fordham, D., Mooney, P.A., Pedler, L.P., Araújo, M.B., Paton, D.C., Stead, M.G., Watts, M.J., Akçakaya, R. & Brook, B.W. Anticipated global change and small population demography interact to threaten the persistence of a rare cockatoo. Journal of Applied Ecology. 49: 785-794.
  12. Hof, C. , Brandle, M., Dehling, M., Munguía, M., Brandl, R., Araújo, M.B., & Rahbek, C. 2012. Habitat stability affects dispersal and the ability to track climate change. Biology Letters. 8(4): 639-643.
  13. Munguía, M., Rahbek, C., Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Rangel, T.F.L.B. & Araújo, M.B. 2012. Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate. PLoS One. 7(4): e34420. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0034420
  14. Nenzén, H.K., Keith, D.A., Swab, R. & Araújo, M.B. 2012. demoniche – An R package for simulating spatially-explicit population dynamics. Ecography. 35: 577-580.
  15. Oliveira, G., Araújo, M.B., Rangel, T.F.L.V.B., Alagador, D. & Diniz-Filho, J.A.F. 2012. Conserving Brazilian semiarid (Caating) biome under climate change. Biodiversity and Conservation. 11: 2913-2926.
  16. Ruiz-Labourdette, D., Nogués-Bravo, D., Sáinz Olero, H., Schmitz, M.F. & Pineda, F.D. 2012. Forest composition in Mediterranean mountains is projected to shift along the entire elevational gradient under climate change. Journal of Biogeography. 39: 169-176.
  17. Segurado, P., Kunin, W.E., Filipe, A.F. & Araújo, M.B. 2012. Patterns of coexistence of two iberian freshwater turtles at varying spatial scales. Basic and Applied Ecology.
  18. Terribile, L.C., Lima-Ribeiro, M de S., Araújo, M.B., Bizão, N., Collevatti, R.G., Dobrovolski, R., Franco, A., Guilhaumon, F., Lima, J.S., Murakami, D.M., Nabout, J.C., de Oliveira, G., Oliveira, L., Rabello, S.G., Rangel, T.F., Simon, L.M., Soares, T.N., Telles, M.P.C. & Diniz-Filho, J.A.F. 2012. Areas of climate stability of species’ ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time. Natureza & Conservação. 10: 152-159.
  19. Alagador, D., João Martins, M., Cerdeira, J.O., Cabeza, M. & Araújo, M.B. 2011. A probabilistic-based approach to match species with reserves when data are at different resolutions. Biological Conservation 144: 811-820.
  20. Araújo, M.B., Alagador, D., Cabeza, M., Nogués Bravo, D. & Thuiller, W. 2011. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecology Letters 14: 484-492
  21. Araújo, M.B., Rozenfeld, R., Rahbek, C. & Marquet, P.A. 2011. Using species coexistence networks to assess the impacts of climate change. Ecography. 34: 897-908
  22. Engler, R., Randin, C.F., Thuiller, W., Dullinger, S., Zimmermann, N.E., Araújo, M.B., Pearman, P.B., Le Lay, G., Piedallu, C., Albert, C.H., Choler, P., Coldea, G., de Lamo, X., Dirnböck, T. Gégout, J-C., Gómez-García1, D., Grytnes, J-A., Heegaard, E., Høistad, F., Nogués-Bravo, D., Normand, S., Puşcaş, M., Sebastià, M-T., Stanisc, A., Theurillat,J-P., Trivedi, M., Vittoz, P. & Guisan. A. 2011. Climate change threatens European mountain flora. Global Change Biology. 17: 2230-2341.
  23. Hof, C., Araújo, M.B., Jetz, W. & Rahbek, C. 2011. Additive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity. Nature. 480: 516-519.
  24. Hof, C., Levinsky, I., Araújo, M.B. & Rahbek, C. 2011. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change. Global Change Biology. 17: 2987-2990.
  25. Kujala, H., Cabeza, M., Araújo, M.B. & Thuiller, W. 2011. Misleading results from conventional Gap analysis – messages from the warming North. Biological Conservation 144: 2450-2458.
  26. Nenzén, H.K. & Araújo, M.B. 2011. Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change. Ecological Modelling. 222: 3346-3354.
  27. Thuiller, W., Lavergne, S., Roquet, C., Boulangeat, I., Lafourcade, B. & Araújo, M.B. 2011. Consequences of climate change on the Tree of Life in Europe. Nature. 470: 531-534
  28. Triviño, M., Thuiller, W., Cabeza, M., Hickler, T., Araújo, M.B. The contribution of vegetation and landscape metrics for predicting environmental change impacts on Iberian birds. PLoS One. 6(12): e29373
  29. Baselga, A. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Do community models fail to project community variation effectively? Journal of Biogeography. 37: 1842-1850.
  30. Chiarucci, A., Araújo, M.B., Decocq, G., Beierkuhnlein, C. & Fernández-Palacios, J.M., The concept of Potential Natural Vegetation: an epitaph? Journal of Vegetation Science. 21: 1172-1778.
  31. Cerdeira, J.O., Pinto, L.S., Cabeza, M. & Gaston, K.J. 2010. Species specific connectivity in reserve-network design using graphs. Biological Conservation 14: 408-15.
  32. Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Nabout, J.C., Bini, L.M., Loyola, R.D., Rangel, T.F.L.B., Nogués-Bravo, D. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Ensemble forecasting and geographic range of Tropidacris cristata (Orthoptera: Acridoidea: Romaleidae) under climate change. Insect Conservation and Diversity 3: 213-221.
  33. Garcia, R. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Planning for conservation in a changing climate. Natureza & Conservação. 8: 78-80.
  34. Hof, C., Rahbek, C. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Phylogenetic signals in climatic niche similarity of the world’s amphibians. Ecography. 33: 242-250.
  35. Meier, E.S., Araújo, M.B., Guisan, A., Kienast, F., Pearman, P.B., Svenning, J-C., Thuiller, W. & Zimmermann, N.E. 2009. Biotic and climatic variables show little overlap in explaining patterns of the realized niche. Ecography. 33: 1038-1048.
  36. Nogués-Bravo, D., Ohlemüller, R., Batra, P. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Climate predictors of Late Quaternary Extinctions. Evolution. 64: 2442-2449 [Selection of Faculty of 1000 Biology].
  37. Pereira, H.M., Leadley, P.W., Proença, V., Alkemade, R., Scharlemann, J.W., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F., Araújo, M.B., Balvanera, P., Biggs, R., Cheung, W.W.L., Cooper, H.D., Gilman, E.L., Guénette, S., Hurtt, G.C., Huntington, H.P., Mace, G.M., Oberdoff, T., Revenga, C., Rodrigues, P., Scholes, R.J., Sumaila, U.R. & Walpole, M. 2010. Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science. 330: 1496-1501.
  38. Anderson, B. J., Akçakaya, H. R. Araújo, M.B., Fordham, D., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R., Thuiller, W., Brook, B. 2009. Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society London B. 276: 1415-1420.
  39. Araújo, M.B. 2009. Systematic conservation planning comes to age. Conservation Biology. 23(5): 1332-1333.
  40. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W. & Yoccoz, N.G. 2009. Re-opening the climate envelope reveals macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. E45-46.
  41. Baselga, A. & Araújo, M.B. 2009. Individualistic vs. community modelling of species distributions under climate change. Ecography 32: 55-65.
  42. Bini, L.M., Diniz-Filho, J.L.F. , Rangel, T.F.L.V.B., Akre, T.S.B., Albaladejo, R.G., Albuquerque, F.S., Aparicio, A., Araújo, M.B., Baselga, A., Beck, K., Bellocq, M.I., Böhning-Gaese, K., Borges, P.A.V., Castro-Parga, I., Chey, V.K., Chown, S.L., de Marco, Jr.P., Dobkin, D.s., Ferrer-Castán, D., Field, R., Filloy, J., Fleishman, E., Gómez, J.F., Hortal, J., Iverson, J.B., Kerr, J.T., Kissling, W.D., Kitching, I.J., León-Cortés, J.L., Lobo, J.M., Montoya, D., Morales-Castilla, I., Moreno, J.C., Oberdorff, T., Olalla-Tárraga, M.A., Pausas, J.G., Qian, H., Rahbek, C., Rodríguez, M.A., Rueda, M., Ruggiero, A., Sackmann, P., Sanders, N.J., Terribile, L.c., Vetaas, O.R., & Hawkins, B.A. 2009. Parameter estimation in geographical ecology: an empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial regression. Ecography 32: 193-204.
  43. Brook, B., Akçakaya, R., Keith, D., Mace, G., Pearson, R.G. & Araújo, M.B. 2009. Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change. Biology Letters. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2009.0480.
  44. Diniz-Filho, J.A., Bini, L.M., Rangel, T.F.L.B., Loyola, R.D., Hof, C., Nogués-Bravo, D. & Araújo, M.B. 2009. Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate changes. Ecography 32: 897-906.
  45. Filipe, A.F., Araújo, M.B., Doadrio, I., Angermeier, P.L. & Collares-Pereira, M.J. 2009. Biogeography of the Iberian Freshwater Fishes revisited: the role of contemporary versus historical constraints. Journal of Biogeography. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02154.x
  46. Hickler, T., Fronzek, S., Araújo, M.B., Schweiger, O., Thuiller, W., Sykes, M.T. 2009. Projections of species distributions and biodiversity might have been based upon misleading measures of water availability. Global Ecology and Biogeography 18: 304-313
  47. Hortal, J., Araújo, M.B.& Lobo, J.M. 2009. The effectiveness of discrete and continuous environmental diversity as a surrogate for biodiversity. Ecological Indicators 9: 138-149.
  48. Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R., & Araújo, M.B. 2009. BIOMOD – A platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 32: 369-373
  49. Araújo, M.B., Nogués-Bravo, D., Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Haywood, A.M., Valdes, P.J. & Rahbek, C. 2008. Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians. Ecography 31: 8–15 [Selection of Faculty of 1000 Biology]
  50. Araújo, M.B., Nogués-Bravo, D., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., & Whittaker, R.J. 2008. Exposure of European biodiversity to changes in human-induced pressures. Environmental Science and Policy 11: 38-45
  51. Keith, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Thuiller, w., Midgley, G.F., Pearson, R.G., Phillips, S.J., Regan, H.M., Araújo, M.B. & Rebelo, T.G. 2008. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049.
  52. Kühn, I., Sykes, M.T., Berry, P.M., Thuiller, W., Piper, J.M., Nigmann, U., Araújo, M.B., Balletto, E., Bonelli, S., Cabeza, M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Klotz, S., Metzger, M., Midgley, G., Musche, M., Olofsson, J., Paterson, J.S., Penev, L., Rickebusch, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A.R., Schweiger, O., Wilson, E., Settele, J. 2008. MACIS: Minimisation of and adaptation to climate change impacts on biodiversity. GAIA 17 (4): 393-395.
  53. Mitikka, V., Heikkinen, R., Luoto, M., Araújo, M.B., Saarinen, K., Poyry, J. & Fronzek, S. 2008. Predicting the northward range expansion of the map butterfly in Northern Europe using bioclimatic models. Biodiversity and Conservation 17: 623-641
  54. Nogués-Bravo, D., Araújo, M.B., Romdal, T., and Rahbek, C. 2008. Scale effects and human impact on the elevational species richness gradients. Nature 453:216-220.
  55. Nogués-Bravo, D., Lasanta, T. & Araujo, M.B. Climate warming in Mediterranean mountains during the XXIst century. Ambio 37: 380-385
  56. Nogués-Bravo, D., Rodríguez, J., Hortal, J., Batra, P. & Araújo, M.B. 2008. Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the mammoth. PLOS Biology. 6: e79. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060079 [Selection of Faculty of 1000 Biology]
  57. Ohlemüller, R., Anderson, B.J., Araújo, M.B., Stuart H. M. Butchart, S.H.M., Kudrna, O., Ridgely, R.S. & Thomas, C.D. 2008. Coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change. Biology Letters. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2008.0097
  58. Paterson, J.S., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Piper, J.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A. Mitigation, adaptation and the threat to biodiversity. Conservation Biology. 22: 1352-1355
  59. Peterson, A.T., Stewart, A., Mohamed, K.I. & Araújo, M.B. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change. PLOS One. 3(6): e2441. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0002441.
  60. Rickebusch, S., Thuiller, W., Hickler, T., Araújo, M.B., Sykes, M.T., Schweiger, O., & Lafourcade, B. 2008. Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models. Biology Letters 4: 553-555.
  61. Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Midgley, G.F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F.M., Sykes, M.T. & Zimmermann, N.E. 2008. Predicting climate change impacts on plant diversity: where to go from here? Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 9: 137–152
  62. Triantis, K.A., Nogués-Bravo, D., Hortal, J., Borges, P.A.V., Adsersen, H., Fernández-Palacios, J.M. Araújo, M.B., Whittaker. R.J. Measurements of area and the (island) species–area relationship: new directions for an old pattern. Oikos 117: 1555-1559
  63. Araújo, M.B. & Luoto, M. 2007. The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16, 743-753 [Selection of Faculty of 1000 Biology]
  64. Araújo, M.B., Lobo, J.M. & Moreno, J.C. 2007. The effectiveness of Iberian protected areas for conserving terrestrial biodiversity. Conservation Biology 21: 1423-1432
  65. Araújo, M.B. & New, M. 2007. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22: 42-47
  66. Araújo, M.B.& Rahbek, C. 2007. Conserving biodiversity in a world of conflicts. Journal of Biogeography 34: 199-200
  67. Araújo M.B., Thuiller W. & Pearson, R.G. 2007. Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe (vol 33, pg 1712, 2006). Journal of Biogeography 34: 192-192 (erratum).
  68. Botkin, D., Saxe, H., Araújo, M.B., Betts, R., Bradshaw, R., Cedhagen, T., Chesson, P., Davis, M.B., Dawson, T., Etterson, J., Faith, D.P., Guisan, A., Ferrier, S., Hansen, A.S., Hilbert, D., Kareiva, P., Margules, C., New, M., Skov, F., Sobel, M.J. & Stockwell, D. 2007. Forecasting effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 57: 227-236 [Selection of Faculty of 1000 Biology]
  69. Dormann, C.F., McPherson, J.M., Araújo, M.B., Bivand, R., Bolliger, J., Carl, G., Davies, R., Hirzel, A., Jetz, W., Kissling, W.D., Kühn, I., Ohlemüller, R., Peres-Neto, P.R., Reineking, B., Schröder, B. Schurr, F.M. & Wilson, R. 2007. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of ecological species distribution data: a user’s guide. Ecography 30: 609-628 Appendix
  70. Hannah, L., Midgley, G.F., Andelmand, S., Araújo, M.B., Hughes, G., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R. & Williams, P.H. 2007. Protected area needs in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 5: 131-138.
  71. Hawkins, B.A., Araújo, M.B., Cabrero-Sañudo, F.J., Castro Parga, I., Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Ferrer-Castán, D., Field, R., Gómez, J.F., Qian, H., Hortal, J., Kerr, J.T., Lobo, J.M., Montoya, D., Moreno, J.C., Olalla-Tárraga, M.Á., Pausas, J.G., Rahbek, C., Rodríguez, M.Á., Sanders, N.J., Albuquerque, F.S. de & Williams, P.H. 2007. A global evaluation of metabolic theory as an explanation of diversity gradients. Ecology 88: 1898–1902 [Selection of Faculty of 1000 Biology]
  72. Hawkins, B.A., Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Bini, L.M., Araújo, M.B., Field, R., Hortal, J., Kerr, J.T., Rahbek, C., Rodríguez, M.A. & Sanders, N.J. 2007. Metabolic theory and diversity gradients: where do we go from here? Ecology 88: 1877–1888
  73. Nogués-Bravo, D., Araújo, M.B., Martinez-Rica, J.P. & Errea, M.P. 2007. Exposure of global mountain systems to climate change. Global Environmental Change 17: 420-428.
  74. Williams, P.H., Araújo, M.B. & Rasmont, P. 2007. Predicting vulnerability among species and sites for British bumblebees. Biological Conservation 138: 493-505
  75. Willis, K.J., Araújo, M.B., Bennett, K.D., Figueroa-Rangel, B., Froyd, C.A. & Meyers, N. 2007. How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation strategies and the relevance of long-term ecological studies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society – Biological Sciences 362: 175-186
  76. Whittaker, R.J., Ladle, R.J., Araújo, M.B., Fernández-Palacios, J.M., Delgado, J.D. & Arévalo, J.R. 2007. The island immaturity – speciation pulse model of island evolution: an alternative to the ‘diversity begets diversity’ model. Ecography 30: 321-327
  77. Whittaker, R.J, Nogués-Bravo, D. & Araújo, M.B. 2007. Geographic gradients of species richness: a test of the water-energy conjecture of Hawkins et al. (2003) using European data for five taxa. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16: 76-89
  78. Araújo, M.B.& Guisan, A. 2006. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography 33: 1677-1688
  79. Araújo, M.B.& Rahbek, C. 2006. How does climate change affect biodiversity? Science 313: 1396-1397
  80. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W. & Pearson, R.G. 2006. Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. Journal of Biogeography 33: 1712-1728
  81. Heikkinen, R.K., Luoto, M., Araújo, M.B., Virkkala, R., Thuiller, W. & Sykes, M. 2006. Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic modelling under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography 30: 751-777.
  82. Nogués-Bravo, D. & Araújo, M.B. 2006. Species richness, area and climate correlates. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 452–460
  83. O’Dea, N., Araújo, M.B. & Whittaker, R.J. 2006. Effectiveness of conservation strategies: comparing Important Bird Areas and systematic reserve solutions for the tropical Andes. Diversity and Distributions 12: 205-214
  84. Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Martinez, E., Brotons, L., McClean, C., Miles, L., Segurado, P., Dawson, T. & Lees, D. 2006. Model-based uncertainty in species’ range prediction. Journal of Biogeography. 33: 1704-1711
  85. Rounsevell, M., Reginster, I., Araújo, M.B., Carter, T.R., Dendoncker, N., Ewert, F., House, J.I., Kankaapaa, S., Leemans, R., Metzger, M., Schmit, C., Smith, P. & Tuck, G. 2006. A coherent set of future land-use change scenarios for Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114: 57-68
  86. Segurado, P., Araújo, M.B.& Kunin, W. 2006. Consequences of spatial autocorrelation on niche-based models. Journal of Applied Ecology 43: 433-444.
  87. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Sykes, M.T. & Araújo, M.B. 2006. Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe. Diversity and Distributions12:49-60
  88. Araújo, M.B. & Pearson, R.G. 2005. Equilibrium of species’ distributions with climate. Ecography 28: 693-695.
  89. Araújo, M.B., Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W., & Erhard, M. 2005. Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology 11: 1504-1513.
  90. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W., Williams, P.H. & Reginster, I. 2005. Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: implications for conservation planning. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14: 17-30
  91. Araújo, M.B., Whittaker, R.J., Ladle, R.J. & Erhard, M. 2005. Reducing uncertainty in extinction risk from climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14: 529-538 [Selection of Faculty of 1000 Biology]
  92. Schröter, D., Cramer, W., Leemans, R., Prentice, I.C., Araújo, M.B., Arnell, N.W., Bondeau, B., Bugmann, H., Carter, T., de la Vega-Leinert, A.C., Erhard, M., Ewert, F., Glendining, M., House, J., Kankaanpää, S., Klein, R.J.T., Metzger, M.J., Meyer, J., Mitchell, T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, M., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Sabaté, S., Sánchez, A., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Smith, J., Smith, P., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K., Thuiller, W., Tuck, G., Zaehle, S. & Zierl, B. 2005. Ecosystem service supply and human vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310: 1333-1337
  93. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S. & Araújo, M.B. 2005. Niche properties as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14, 347-357
  94. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araújo, M.B., Sykes, M. & Prentice, I.C. 2005. Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 102: 8245-8250
  95. Whittaker, R.J., Araújo, M.B., Jepson, P., Ladle, R., Watson, J., & Willis, K. 2005. Conservation biogeography: assessment and prospect. Diversity and Distributions 11: 3-23
  96. Williams, P., Hannah, L., Andelman, S., Midgley, G., Araújo, M., Hughes, G., Manne, L.L., Martinez-Meyer, E. & Pearson, R. 2005. Planning for climate change: Identifying minimum dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conservation Biology. 19: 1060-1073
  97. Araújo, M.B., Cabeza, M., Thuiller, W., Hannah, L. & Williams, P.H. 2004. Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Global Change Biology 10: 1618-1626
  98. Araújo, M.B. 2004. Matching species with reserves: uncertainties from using data at different resolutions. Biological Conservation 118: 533-538
  99. Araújo, M.B., Densham, P.J. & Williams, P.H. 2004. Representing species in reserves from patterns of assemblage diversity. Journal of Biogeography 31: 1037-1050
  100. Brotons, L., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B. & Hirzel, A.H. 2004. Presence-absence versus presence-only habitat suitability models: the role of species ecology and prevalence. Ecography 27: 437-448
  101. Cabeza, M., Araújo, M.B., Wilson, R.J., Thomas, C.D., Cowley, M.J.R. & Moilanen, A. 2004. Combining probabilities of occurrence with spatial reserve design. Journal of Applied Ecology 41: 252-262
  102. Ladle, R.J., Jepson, P., Araújo, M.B. & Whittaker, R.J. 2004. Dangers of crying wolf over risk of extinctions. Nature 428: 799
  103. Segurado, P. & Araújo, M.B. 2004. An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. Journal of Biogeography 31: 1555-1569
  104. Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B. & Lavorel, S. 2004. Do we need land-cover data to predict species distributions in Europe? Journal of Biogeography 31: 353-361
  105. Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Pearson, R.G., Whittaker, R.J., Brotons, L. & Lavorel, S. 2004. Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk. Nature 430: doi10.1038/nature02716
  106. Thuiller, W., Brotons, L., Araújo, M.B. & Lavorel, S. 2004. Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography 27: 165-172
  107. Araújo, M.B. 2003. The coincidence of people and biodiversity in Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography 12: 5-12
  108. Araújo, M.B., Densham, P.J. & Humphries, C.J. 2003. Predicting species diversity with ED: the quest for evidence. Ecography 26: 380-384
  109. Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B. & Lavorel, S. 2003. Generalized models versus classification tree analysis: predicting spatial distributions of plant species at different scales. Journal of Vegetation Science 14: 669-680
  110. Araújo, M.B. 2002. Biodiversity hotspots and zones of ecological transition. Conservation Biology 16: 1662-1663
  111. Araújo, M.B., Williams, P.H. & Fuller, R. 2002a. Dynamics of extinction and the selection of nature reserves. Proceedings of the Royal Society London – Biological Series B269: 1971-80 [Editor’s Choice, Science, 298 (5592), 11 October 2002]
  112. Araújo, M.B., Williams, P.H. & Turner, A. 2002b. A sequential approach to minimize threats within selected conservation areas. Biodiversity and Conservation 11: 1011-1024
  113. Williams, P.H. & Araújo, M.B. 2002. Apples, oranges and probabilities: integrating multiple factors into biodiversity conservation with consistency. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 7: 139-151
  114. Araújo, M.B. & Williams, P.H. 2001. The bias of complementary hotspots toward marginal populations. Conservation Biology 15: 1710-1720
  115. Araújo, M.B., Densham, P.J., Lampinen, R., Hagemeijer, W.J.M., Mitchell-Jones, A.J., Gasc, J.P. & Humphries, C.J. 2001. Would environmental diversity be a good surrogate for species diversity? Ecography 24: 103-110
  116. Araújo, M.B. & Williams, P.H. 2000. Selecting areas for species persistence using occurrence data. Biological Conservation 96: 331-45
  117. Borralho, R., Stoate, C. & Araújo, M. 2000. Factors affecting the distribution of Red-legged Partridges Alectoris rufa in an agricultural landscape of southern Portugal. Bird Study 47: 304-10
  118. Sérgio, C., Araújo, M.B. & Drapper, D. 2000. Portuguese bryophyte diversity and priority areas for conservation. Lindbergia 25: 116-123.
  119. Stoate, C., Borralho, R. & Araújo, M. 2000. Factors affecting Corn bunting Miliaria calandra abundance in a Portuguese agricultural landscape. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 77: 219- 26
  120. Williams, P.H. & Araújo, M.B. 2000. Using probability of persistence to identify important areas for biodiversity. Proceedings of the Royal Society London – Biological Series B267: 1959-66
  121. Araújo, M.B. 1999. Distribution patterns of biodiversity and the design of a representative reserve network in Portugal. Diversity and Distributions 5: 151-63

Other peer reviewed papers (not listed in the SCI or Scopus)

    1. Ferri-Yáñez, F., Hayes, J.P. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Hot Research on Roasted Lizards: warming, evolution and extinction in climate change studies. Frontiers of Biogeography 2: 61-63
    2. Lobo, J.M. & Araújo, M.B.2003. La aplicación de datos faunísticos para el diseño de redes de reservas: el caso de los anfibios y reptiles de la Península Ibérica. Graellsia 59: 399-408.
    3. Stoate, C., Araújo, M.B. & Borralho, R. 2003. Abundance of four lark species in relation to Portuguese farming systems. Ornis Hungarica 12-13:297-301.
    4. Stoate, C., Araújo, M.B. & Borralho, R. 2003. Conservation of European farmland birds: abundance and species diversity. Ornis Hungarica 12-13:33-40.
    5. Williams, P.H. & Araújo, M.B. 2000. Integrating species and ecosystem monitoring for identifying conservation priorities. European Conservation 4: 17-18.
    6. Williams, P.H., Humphries, C.J., Araújo, M.B., Lampinen, R., Hagemeijer, W., Gasc, J-P. & Mitchell-Jones. A. 2000. Endemism and important areas for conserving European biodiversity: a preliminary exploration of Atlas data for plants and terrestrial vertebrates. Belgian Journal of Entomology 2: 21-46.
    7. Araújo, M.B.& Sérgio, C. 1999. Gap Analysis: vantagens e desvantagens para uma avaliação da Rede Natura 2000 em Portugal. Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Entomologia 6: 13-20.
    8. Humphries, C.J., Araújo, M.B., Williams, P.H., Lampinen, R., Lathi, T., Uotila, P. 1999. Plant diversity in Europe: Atlas Florae Europaeae and WORLDMAP. Acta Botanica Fennica 162: 11-21.
    9. Araújo, M.B. 1998. Avaliação da biodiversidade em conservação. Silva Lusitana 6: 19-40.
    10. Araújo, M.B. 1995. Basis for establishing a management plan for conservation and sustainable development in the Pantanal (Brazil). The European Geographer 9: 15-21.

Books as an author

    1. Peterson, A.T.P., Soberón, J., Pearson, R.G., Anderson, R.P., Martínez-Meyer, E., Nakamura, M. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Ecological Niches and Geographical Distributions: A Modeling Perspective. Monographs in Population Biology. Princeton University Press. Accepted.
    2. Araújo, M.B.& Francisco, S. 1997. Manual: como criar um percurso de interpretação ambiental na proximidade da escola. Delegação Regional de Ambiente e Recursos Naturais, Évora.

Books as editor

    1. Costa, L.T., Costa, H., Araújo, M.B. & Silva, M.A. (eds.) 1998. Simpósio sobre Aves Migradoras na Península Ibérica. SPEA e Univ. Évora.

Book chapters

    1. Fordham D.A., Akçakaya H.R., Araújo M.B. & Brook B.W. 2011. Modelling range shifts for invasive vertebrates in response to climate change. In Wildlife conservation in a changing climate. Eds. Brodie J., Post E., Doak D., University of Chicago Press. In press
    2. Gillson, L., Laddle, R.J., Araújo, M.B. 2011. Base-lines, patterns and process. in Conservation Biogeography. (ed. R.J. Whittaker & R.J. Ladle). Blackwell-Willey. Oxford.
    3. Diniz-Filho, J.A.F. & Araújo, M.B. 2010. Macroecologia e mudanças climáticas. in Biogeografia da América do Sul: Padrões e Processos (ed. C.J.B. Carvalho & E. Almeida). Editorial Roca. São Paulo
    4. Araújo, M.B. 2010. Has Biodiversity a Future? In Environment at the Crossroads: Aiming for a Sustainable Future (ed. V. Soromenho Marques). Pp. 22-31. Carcanet & Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian. Manchester.
    5. Araújo, M.B. 2010. O futuro da Biodiversidade. In O Ambiente na Encruzilhada: Por um Futuro Sustentável (ed. V. Soromenho Marques). Pp 55-66. Esfera do Caos & Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian. Lisboa.
    6. Vohland, K., Hickler, T., Feehan, J., Gumpenberger, M., Araújo, M.B. & Cramer, W. 2010. Priority setting for nature conservation. In Atlas of Biodiversity Risk (eds. J. Settele, R. Grabaum, V. Grobelnick, V. Hammen, S. Klotz, L. Penev, I. Kühn). Pensoft, Sofia, Moscow.
    7. Araújo, M.B. 2009. Climate change and Spatial Conservation Planning. In Spatial Conservation Prioritization: quantitative methods and computational tools (eds. A. Moilanen, H. Possingham, K. Wilson). Oxford University Press.
    8. Proença, V., Queiroz, C.F., Araújo, M.B., Pereira, H.M. 2009. Biodiversidade. In Ecossistemas e Bem-estar Humano: Avaliação para Portugal do Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (eds. H.M. Pereira, T. Domingos, L. Vicente, Vania Proença). pp. 127-179. Escolar Editora. Lisboa.
    9. Araújo M.B 2008. Biogeografia e conservação das aves nidificantes em Portugal continental. In Atlas das Aves Nidificantes em Portugal (1999-2005) (eds. Equipa Atlas). Pp. 57-66. Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e da Biodiversidade, Sociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves, Parque Natural da Madeira e Secretaria Regional do Ambiente e do Mar. Assírio & Alvim. Lisboa.
    10. Hannah, L., Araújo, M.B., Midgley, G., Andelman, S., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R., Williams, P. & Lovejoy, T.E. 2008. Terrestrial Biodiversity. In A Climate for Life: Meeting the Global Challenge(eds. Mittermeier, R.A., M.Totten, L. Ledwith Pennypacker, F. Boltz, C.G. Mittermeier, G. Midgley, C.M. Rodríguez, G. Prickett, C. Gascon, P.A. Seligmann and O. Langrand). Pages 183-189. CEMEX Conservation Book Series, ILCP, Arlington, VA
    11. IPCC 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report for the IPCC. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutkikof, P.J. van der Linden & C.E. Hanson (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp. [author of biodiversity sections for the European chapter: 12.4.6 and 12.5.6.].
    12. Araújo, M.B.& Garcia-Pereira, P. 2003. Cartografia da diversidade de borboletas em Portugal continental (ed. Ernestino Maravalhas). Apollo Books. Denmark.
    13. Williams, P.H., Humphries, C.J. & Araújo, M.B. 1998. Mapping Europe’s biodiversity. In Facts and Figures of Europe’s Biodiversity. State and Trends, 1998-99, ed. B.C.W. Delbaere, Technical Report Series. European Centre for Nature Conservation. Tilburg.


    1. Araújo, M.B., del Dedo-Garcimartín, M., Pozo, I. & Calmaestra, R. 2010. Evaluación de los impactos, vulnerabilidad y adaptación al cambio climático de la fauna en España. Tomo I (Informe). Pp. 101. Subdirección General de Biodiversidad, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino & Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas. Madrid
    2. Araújo, M.B., del Dedo-Garcimartín, M., Pozo, I. & Calmaestra, R. 2010. Evaluación de los impactos, vulnerabilidad y adaptación al cambio climático de la fauna en España. Tomo II (Fichas). Pp. 310. Subdirección General de Biodiversidad, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y Medio Rural y Marino & Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas. Madrid
    3. Araújo, M.B. (2009) Protected areas and climate change in Europe. Discussion paper prepared for the 29th meeting of the Standing Committee of the Convention of the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats, pp 30 pages, Bern. In review.
    4. Ash, N., Jürgens, N., Leadley, P., Alkemade, R., Araújo, M.B., Asner, G.P., Bachelet, D., Costello, M.J., Finlayson, M., Lavorel, S., Mace, G., Mooney, H.A., Parr, T., Scholes, R., Soberon, J., Turner, W., Prieur-Richard, A-N., Larigauderie, A. & Walther, B. 2009. bioDISCOVERY: Assessing, monitoring and predicting biodiversity change. DIVERSITAS Report N°7. 40 pp.
    5. Cabeza, M., Araújo, M.B., Alagador, D.A. & Thuiller, W. 2008. Improved method for reserve selection. MACIS (Minimisation of an Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity) project. Deliverable 3.4. 10 pp.
    6. Olofsson, J., Hickler, T., Sykes, M.T., Araújo, M.B., Baletto, E., Berry, P.M., Bonelli, S., Cabeza, M., Dubuis, A., Guisan, A., Kuhn, I., Kujala, H., Piper, J., Rounsevell, M., Settele, J., & Thuiller, W. 2008. Climate change impacts on European biodiversity – observations and future projections. MACIS (Minimisation of an Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity) project. Deliverable 1.1. 36. pp.
    7. Araújo, M.B., Espiga, A. & Raposo, I. 1992. Estratégia Nacional de Educação Ambiental, proposta das Associações Defesa do Ambiente. Instituto de Promoção Ambiental, Lisboa.
    8. Several authors. 1995. Biodiversity strategy for Guernsey (Channel Islands). Produced by the MSc Conservation course to the States of Administration of Guernsey.
    9. Araújo, M.B.1989. Inventário ornitológico de um mosaico tipo da região alentejana. Relatório premiado pela Comissão de Coordenação da Região Alentejo em concurso sobre Conservação da Natureza. Évora.


    1. Araújo, M.B. 2000. The representation and persistence of species in conservation area-networks. PhD dissertation in Geography. University of London and The Natural History Museum, London.
    2. Araújo, M.B. 1995. The effects of Eucalyptus globulus Labill. plantations on biodiversity: a case study in Serra de Portel (South Portugal). MSc dissertation in Conservation Biology. University College, London.
    3. Araújo, M.B.1994. Fragmentação de ecossistemas e corredores ecológicos na óptica do planeamento para a biodiversidade: ensaio aplicado a ecossistemas florestais do Grampian (Escócia). Tese de licenciatura em Geografia e Planeamento Regional. Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisboa.


  1. Araújo, M.B. 2008. Editorial: Conserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services. in DG Environment News Alert Service Special Issue on Biodiversity(ed. M.B. Araújo). European Commission. Brussels.
  2. Gómez Calmaestra, R, Picatoste Ruggeroni, J.R.Gutiérrez Teira, A., Villalba, C., Felicísimo, A. & Araújo, M.B.2008. Cambio climático y conservación de la biodiversidad en España: Una iniciativa para el análisis y la identificación de medidas de adaptación. Quercus. In press.
  3. Pereira dos Santos, H., Aguiar, C., &Araújo, M.B. 2006. Ideias trágicas para o mundo rural. Expresso. Link to blog version
  4. Araújo, M.B.2003. A política de conservação da biodiversidade. Ambiente 21 8: 14-21. Link to blog version
  5. Araújo, M.B. 2001. Goals, values and priorities. Belgian Biodiversity Platform – EPBRS meeting. Link to online article.
  6. Araújo, M.B.2001. O que faltou na estratégia nacional de conservação da biodiversidade? Naturlink. Link to online article.
  7. Araújo, M.B. 2001. Para quê Alqueva? Naturlink. Link to online article.
  8. Araújo, M.B. 1999. Biodiversity, indicators, concepts, and action. Conference on Cost-effective Biodiversity Indicators to assess biological diversity in the framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Link to online article.
  9. Araújo, M.B. 1999. Conservação da biodiversidade e Rede Natura 2000 em Portugal. Naturlink. Link to online article.
  10. Araújo, M.B. 1999. Novos sítios da Rede Natura 2000. Correio do Manhã 7622 (suplemento fórum ambiente 276), p.5
  11. Araújo, M.B.1994. A nova ponte sobre o Tejo: paradigma da política de ambiente em Portugal. Liberne 38.
  12. Araújo, M.B. 1990. Reserva Natural da Serra da Malcata: perspectivas. Liberne 25.